Dealing adequately with technical uncertainties

Statistics, RAMS & Quality Management
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Markov Analysis

In contrast to Russia, markov analysis is not very common in the western civilization. Markov is an alternative for fault tree analysis (FTA) and reliability block diagram (RBD) and can handle most scenarios that are usually tackled with FTA or RBD. Furthermore, Markov can handle specific scenarios which FTA and RBD can not.

While mathematically being simpler than FTA and RBD, markov requires more abstraction from the reliability analyst:
Instead of breaking the system down into evident pieces (functional blocks or faults), markov requires the system to be divided into so called states.
Every markov state represents the complete system in a specific system state.
Like RBD, markov diagrams consist of blocks. Each block represents a specific system state. System states should be named as precisely as possible.
The quantitative information, namely the transition rates (# of transitions per time unit) is kept in the connectors (arrows).
A twin engine aircraft is a very good example in order to demonstrate the strength of markov. This example is also used in the FTA and the RBD paragraphs for the purpose of showing the limitations of these methods.
It is worthwhile to look a little bit closer to the markov twin engine aircraft diagram. All transition rates are in units of [per hour].
Markov Zweistrahliges Flugzeug

It can be seen that, in contrast to FTA and RBD, markov is capable to handle the twin engine aircraft situation thoroughly, in particular:
Markov is the preferred method for such systems, whose behavior can not satisfactorily be modeled by system components and their interaction.

Like other Methods, there are some problems associated with markov:
As a result of these problems, markov is only used in cases where other methods fail.


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